Institutions: Focus on the Livestock Cycle and Watch for Crop-Weather Catalysts

After 12 past bullish weather events, Lean Hogs moved a median +1.5% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.6% to +7.1%), and -3.9% over 20.

• Dec 10, 2019Ag production falls for third year in row: ABARES - Grain Central+8.8%
• Jun 3, 2016Futures File: Soaring prices prove pigs can fly; weather worries push grain prices higher – Greeley Tribune+2.1%
• Jul 29, 2026Hog futures firm on heat-driven supply tightening - CME | The Pig Site-3.3%
• Feb 13, 2019Floods, drought, trade wars - trying to understand risk in a sea of uncertainty - Beef Central+0.9%
• Sep 21, 2018Farmers Warn of a Chicken and Pork Price Spike, Thanks to Hurricane Florence | 2018-09-21 | SupplyChainBrain+4.5%

After 80 past bullish weather events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -0.8% to +1.3%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Nov 10, 2021The Cycle of Drought, Cowherd Liquidation and Higher Feeder Cattle Prices+0.7%
• Mar 17, 2025Wheat and Livestock Soar on Monday - AgWeb+2.2%
• Jul 15, 2022Pete's Comments: Feeder cattle on a roll | Western Livestock Journal-0.7%
• Jan 18, 2019Winter and mud mess with cattle markets | Western Livestock Journal-0.6%
• Aug 22, 2018US cattle herd expansion slowdown | Meat & Livestock Australia-1.1%

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.

After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Oct 25, 2021November and Winter Weather Outlooks for 2021 | Integrated Crop Management+3.5%
• Jun 25, 2024What does the weather hold for 2024 crops?-4.9%
• Apr 23, 2024Higher Wheat Futures on Weather - ADM Investor Services-0.1%
• Jun 14, 2024Business and Water Levels Improve on the Mississippi River | Prairie Communications, LLC-3.2%
• Nov 4, 2019Winter Weather Outlook for 2019-2020 | Integrated Crop Management+0.9%