
Meat & Livestock Australia reports that the US cattle herd expansion is slowing rather than liquidating, with drought in key beef regions. Female slaughter reached 46.7% of the total kill on a rolling 52-week basis, and total cow slaughter in the first half rose 7.8% year on year.
Rising cow slaughter and drought-driven herd decisions point to tighter future beef supply later in the cycle, supporting cattle prices while adding volatility for feeders.
After 80 past bullish weather events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -0.8% to +1.3%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 79 past bullish weather events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.