Brent crude fell 14% during the week, from $113 to $97 a barrel, weighing on oilseeds. Rapeseed prices dropped 5.2% on the Paris Matif market, while local Uruguayan prices fell to their lowest level in nearly five months; soybeans recorded a fourth consecutive weekly decline.
Traders also expected the USDA to raise its forecast for U.S. soybean production in its next monthly report.
Lower crude prices can reduce support for oilseed demand and prices, while expectations of a larger U.S. soybean crop add supply pressure. These factors are bearish for soybeans and related oilseed markets.
After 312 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.
After 273 past bearish macro events, Soybeans moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 40 past bearish macro events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.8% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -4.5% to +1.7%), and -1.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.