
Ukraine’s National Bank raised its 2026 grain harvest forecast to 64.43 million tonnes from 62.19 million, but cut its 2027 forecast to 58.12 million from 63.1 million. It cited high yields behind the stronger 2026 crop and export disruptions and limited farm finances as factors that could reduce 2027 planted area; the combined grain and oilseed harvest is forecast to fall in 2027 before partly recovering in 2028.
The higher 2026 forecast adds to near-term supply, but export constraints can limit the amount reaching buyers; the lower 2027 outlook could tighten later supply. Shifts in planting from wheat and corn toward oilseeds could also alter the crop mix.
After 406 past neutral report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.5%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 770 past neutral report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.