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Barclays said soft-commodity markets reflect about a 20% chance of a strong El Niño, compared with 60% to 70% odds forecast by meteorologists. The weather pattern could bring drought to parts of Australia and Asia and rain to South America, putting crops including palm oil and wheat at risk; Australian forecasters said it may begin in July.
If El Niño develops, weather-related production risks could tighten supplies and support prices for exposed crops. Markets may rise if they begin pricing in the higher probability cited by forecasters.
theedgemalaysia.comNov 6, 2026After 181 past bullish weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.9%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
