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A sweeping Democratic victory in the US midterm elections prompted a broad reassessment of political and economic risks, and commodities recorded their largest weekly setback since April 2025. Oil fell nearly 14% as markets anticipated a possible US-Iran deal, while shipping disruptions and refined-fuel shortages persisted; the article also notes that elevated food prices and a strengthening El Niño pose agricultural inflation risks.
Lower expected geopolitical risk and weaker energy demand expectations pressured crude prices, while shipping disruption and fuel shortages could limit the downside. El Niño-related crop risks may tighten agricultural supply and support food prices.
home.saxoOle HansenNov 6, 2026After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 312 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
