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JPMorgan estimated that the global oil market moved into a surplus of 1.1 million barrels per day in September, widening to 1.4 million in October, as high prices weakened demand. Goldman Sachs assessed the market as balanced over those months and cited recovering Persian Gulf exports; Vortexa estimated Hormuz oil flows at 14 million barrels per day, or 86% of pre-war levels.
A widening surplus and recovering export flows could rebuild inventories and put downward pressure on crude prices, although continued shipping risks may limit the decline.
oilprice.comIrina SlavNov 6, 2026After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 312 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
