Soybean and soybean-oil prices weakened as expectations for abundant US soybean supplies and softer Asian vegetable-oil markets outweighed a rebound in crude oil. US soybean harvest was 88% complete by November 1, above the five-year average of 84%, while StoneX raised its US yield estimate to 3.7 tonnes per hectare; Malaysian palm-oil futures fell 2.6%.
A larger US crop expectation increases available soybean supplies and pressures soybean and soybean-oil prices, while weaker palm oil adds competition for vegetable-oil demand. China’s high palm-oil inventories add to the bearish pressure on oils.
After 363 past bearish weather events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 29 past bearish weather events, Palm Oil moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -2.2% to +0.6%), and -1.4% over 20.
After 49 past bearish weather events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.5% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -3.2% to +1.0%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Watch the 31-second version · US Soybean Harvest Progress and Palm Oil Pressure Soy Prices