
Estonia’s raw milk purchase prices fell 23% year over year, while retail prices for drinking milk declined by only 4–7%, according to a price-margin study by METK. The study also found that pork carcass prices fell 22% even as retail minced-pork prices rose 38%, with retailers taking a larger share of the final price for the products examined.
Lower farm-gate milk prices have not passed through proportionally to consumers, limiting the demand stimulus that cheaper retail milk might provide and squeezing the farm-to-retail price share. The report indicates margin and price-transmission dynamics rather than a new supply shock, so the direct commodity-price signal is limited.
After 273 past bearish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
After 159 past bearish report events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.