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USDA's December outlook projects 2025 milk output at 231.4 billion pounds and lowers the 2026 forecast to 234.1 billion pounds as dairy cow numbers decline. Farm margins have tightened, with the DMC margin in August more than $2 below the year before.
Softer milk prices and tighter margins are expected into 2026, which tends to push culling higher and keeps dairy-based feed demand subdued.
dairyproducer.comTanya EadieDec 18, 2025After 273 past bearish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
