The CME's Q3 2017 outlook says US milk production is growing about 2% year over year, with cow numbers at a 21-year high. Lower milk futures and higher feed costs have trimmed projected second-half farm margins, while European output is showing modest growth after a year of declines.
Continued US and European milk supply growth adds to dairy product availability and points to softer milk prices unless production slows.
After 273 past bearish report events, MILK moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.