
USDA's November outlook lowers its 2024 all-milk price forecast to $22.75 per cwt while raising the 2024 dry whey and nonfat dry milk forecasts on tight inventories. It keeps 2024 milk production at 226.0 billion pounds, 0.2 billion higher than before, and raises the 2025 all-milk price forecast to $22.85 per cwt.
A lower 2024 milk price forecast with higher production points to softer US milk revenue this year, while the firmer 2025 outlook suggests some recovery ahead.
After 273 past bearish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.