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U.S. gasoline averaged $4.06 per gallon on November 5, and an energy expert expected it to fall below $4 the following week; diesel was also forecast to drop below $6 by Thanksgiving. The article attributes the recent decline to expectations that the midterm election could increase pressure to end the Iran war, increased tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and seasonal reductions in driving demand.
Lower perceived risk of conflict and improving tanker flows are easing concerns about oil supply, while seasonal demand also softens fuel consumption. These factors weigh on crude and refined-product prices, including diesel costs for transport and agriculture.
cbsnews.comMary Cunningham Reporter, MoneyWatchNov 5, 2026After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 51 past bearish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -8.2% to +3.9%), and -2.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
