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StoneX raised its 2026/27 US soybean yield forecast by 0.9 bushels per acre to 55 and its production estimate by 77 million bushels to 4.725 billion bushels, or about 128.6 million tonnes. USDA NASS reported that 88% of the soybean area in 18 major producing states had been harvested by November 1, four percentage points ahead of the five-year average.
The report also noted rising soybean oil use in biodiesel and renewable diesel production, supported by more favorable 45Z incentives than those available for canola oil.
The higher crop estimate implies greater US soybean availability and may pressure soybean prices, while stronger biofuel demand supports soybean oil and can underpin crush demand.
ukragroconsult.comNov 5, 2026After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 296 past bullish report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
