Loading…
The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City says supply shocks from the Iran conflict and the Russia-Ukraine war, plus depleted inventories, are creating refinery bottlenecks. It reports diesel wholesale prices up about 93% and gasoline up about 75% since the Iran conflict began, versus about 63% for crude.
Refining constraints widen the gap between crude and fuel prices, which raises diesel and transport costs for feed supply chains even if crude eases.
kansascityfed.orgDavid RodziewiczNov 5, 2026After 105 past bullish macro events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.4% to +1.8%), and +1.2% over 20.
After 487 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.0%), and +1.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
