Particle: Dollar Weakens After U.S. Midterms as Brazil Gains Are Limited by Policy Risk and Oil Slide

After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.

• Dec 4, 2018Brazil stocks gain; real firms as U.S. dollar weakens+0.7%
• Oct 31, 2019Gold gains as dollar weakens after Fed's interest rate cut-0.1%
• Feb 28, 2020Baht gains more ground, as US dollar weakens-0.5%
• Nov 15, 2023Ringgit Gains Ground As US Dollar Weakens On Lower-Than-Expected CPI Data-0.9%
• Feb 1, 2023Latam FX rises against softer dollar, Vale weighs on Brazil's Bovespa+1.1%

After 92 past neutral macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -0.7% to +1.4%), and +0.4% over 20.

• Sep 4, 2020Brazil's real slips against firmer dollar, Wall St slide hits Latam stocks | Financial Post-0.1%
• Oct 31, 2024Fiscal policy alignment offers relief, but U.S. data limits market gains-1.3%
• Aug 30, 2023EMERGING MARKETS-Latin American currencies up on weaker dollar; Brazil's real lags on rate-cut speculation+2.3%
• Jun 16, 2020Brazil: A monetary policy test for the BRL | articles | ING THINK+0.3%
• Nov 21, 2019EMERGING MARKETS-Latam FX muted after mixed signals on trade; Brazil stocks gain+1.5%

After 312 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.

• Nov 1, 2023Oil falls to settle at 3-week low as Fed policy stance lifts dollar-5.3%
• Mar 20, 2026Grain Futures Slid As Oil Paused And The Dollar Firmed - Finimize+0.8%
• Dec 10, 2025Diesel Futures Slide as ULSD Market Weakens and Inventories Rise Across Global Oil Markets - oftrb.com-4.6%
• Dec 15, 2022Oil prices slid 2% as dollar firms and central banks hike interest rates-2.2%
• Mar 19, 2021Oil battered in ugly week as demand concerns, dollar spur slump-1.8%