El Niño Brings Climate Contrasts from North to South Brazil; Excess Rain Hurts Grains and Cane While Drought Threatens Brazil Nuts

After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.

• Sep 10, 2026Drought Grows South, Rain Helping Northward Through Next Week-0.9%
• May 23, 2017Drought and cold decimate EU grain harvest - Wheat harvest above average | Boerenbusiness. Nl+0.0%
• May 16, 2022'Flash droughts' are Midwest's next big climate threat | Grist+4.0%
• Sep 4, 2026El Niño drives crop failure in Central America and East Africa and threatens the next season in Southern Africa, East Africa, Western South America, and Southeast Asia - Joint Research Centre+1.4%
• Nov 5, 2018El Nino developing as Western Canada recovers from drought - Grainews-4.2%

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.

After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Dec 26, 2022Brazil Soybeans Benefit from Rain North, Hurt by Dryness Far South+0.6%
• Dec 5, 2025Heavy rains improve central Brazil soil moisture but drought fears grow in southern South America-2.3%
• Dec 19, 2022Drought hits Brazil corn in key southern state – StoneX-0.1%
• Apr 6, 2023Brazil: Rains at the end of March collaborated with the soybean crop in Rio Grande do Sul-0.7%
• Feb 25, 2020Dryness worsens in the South as Brazil’s soy harvest reaches 31% – Ohio Ag Net | Ohio's Country Journal+1.9%