EUR/USD jumped to two-month highs after U.S. October CPI came in softer than expected, with headline inflation at 7.7% year on year versus an 8% forecast. Core CPI printed 6.3% against 6.5% expected.
The DXY fell about 1.3% as Treasury yields retreated and markets raised odds of a 50 bp Fed hike in December.
A weaker dollar and lower expected Fed tightening tend to support dollar-priced commodities and firm grain and oilseed export prices. Feed buyers may see modest relief on imported ingredient costs.
After 47 past bearish report events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (34% higher; middle half -0.8% to +0.2%), and -0.7% over 20.
After 20 past bullish report events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (70% higher; middle half -0.0% to +1.6%), and +1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Softer-than-expected U.S. October CPI on Nov 10 cut Treasury yields and Fed tightening expectations, sending the dollar sharply lower and EUR/USD to two-month highs, the main driver of the 5-day move.
EUR/USD surged after softer CPI and DXY fell as Treasury yields retreated and Fed hike odds eased.