
Mato Grosso has recorded only 186 mm of rain between September 1 and October 27, a 33% deficit against the historical average of 276 mm. Soybean fields planted early are already showing effects of low soil moisture, and Aprosoja MT warns of risks to yield potential.
Mato Grosso is Brazil's largest soybean and corn producing state, so a dry start raises concerns about yield in the 2026/27 crop. Persistent dryness could tighten export supplies and support soybean meal and soybean prices.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.