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Brent extended its slide near $94 after tumbling more than 8% in the prior session, with WTI near $87. Vice President Vance said voter frustration over the war doomed Republicans, and Trump said he had no immediate plans to escalate.
Gulf crude exports are recovering, although oil product shipments remain constrained.
Constrained product shipments and Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries are keeping diesel tight even as crude falls. Diesel costs remain a key input for feed logistics.
themalaysianreserve.comDayang NorazharNov 5, 2026After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 327 past geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -3.9% to +7.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
