Euronext December milling wheat settled 0.6% lower at €224 per tonne, touching its weakest level since July 14. The decline followed a stronger euro against the dollar and expectations of better Black Sea grain trade after Russia-Ukraine talks.
A firmer euro makes EU wheat less competitive in dollar terms, and prospects of more Black Sea exports add supply. Both factors point to lower European wheat prices, with knock-on pressure on world feed grain values.
After 80 past bearish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 18 past bullish geopolitics events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (83% higher; middle half +0.9% to +2.0%), and +2.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.