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Weather forecasts for the next two weeks have shifted from dry and cold to wetter and milder across France and southern Europe. Rain is expected to help late sowings of winter wheat and barley and improve rapeseed conditions, with more rain also forecast for Ukraine and Russia, while Corn Belt dryness has let US corn and soybean harvests progress quickly.
Improved moisture in Europe and the Black Sea reduces near-term crop-failure risk for wheat, supporting a bearish tilt for wheat. Rains in Argentina threaten harvest quality and size, a modest offset that could support soybean meal and corn.
terre-net.frNov 4, 2026After 334 past bearish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 70 past bearish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -3.9% to +2.5%), and -1.1% over 20.
After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
