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December Euronext (Matif) wheat fell 3.00 euro to 225.25 euro/t, breaking support near 227-228 euro/t, and is down about 23 euro/t since mid-October. Investors are cutting long positions on possible Russia-Ukraine-US peace talks and a stronger euro, while IKAR cut its 2026/27 Russian wheat export forecast from 42 to 39.5 million tonnes and Sovecon reported only 2.9 million tonnes of Russian wheat exported in October.
Peace-talk hopes raise expectations of reopened Black Sea grain flows, pressuring European grain and rapeseed prices despite tighter Russian export supply. Feed buyers may see softer cereal and rapeseed meal costs near term, though the fundamental supply tightness remains.
cenyrolnicze.plRedakcjaNov 4, 2026After 80 past bearish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and -0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 18 past bullish geopolitics events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (83% higher; middle half +0.9% to +2.0%), and +2.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
