
US fertilizer prices rose in October, with seven of eight major products up and anhydrous ammonia at $987 per ton. Brazilian imported urea climbed to $476-488 per ton CFR, driven mainly by higher European gas costs.
Phosphate shipments from Saudi Arabia through the Strait of Hormuz are gradually resuming.
Higher natural gas costs raise the cost of producing nitrogen fertilizer, and Hormuz disruption constrains phosphate supply. Together these keep fertilizer input costs elevated for farmers and support prices for urea and DAP.
After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 114 past bullish geopolitics events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.2%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.