
Industry estimates put India's kharif maize crop at roughly 20-23 million tons, well below the record 30.5 million tons in the government's third advance estimate for 2025-26. The SOPA estimates the kharif soybean crop at 10.79 million tons, down 2.1%, with moisture stress cutting output sharply in Maharashtra, Karnataka and Telangana.
Soymeal prices rose from about USD 358 a ton in January to USD 631.86 by July.
Losses in both maize and soybeans tighten the domestic feed-grain and soymeal supply that poultry and dairy rely on, supporting feed ingredient prices and raising the import need.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.