
Corn is now 53% more expensive than a year ago, due to Ukraine's logistics problems and weak corn harvests in Europe. Russia and Ukraine are blocking and shelling each other's Black Sea shipping routes.
Prices have fallen for two weeks on hopes of a settlement, and Russia plans to ship more grain via the Baltic.
Disrupted Black Sea export routes tighten world grain supply and support corn and wheat prices, while Baltic shipping costs roughly twice as much and limits how much it can ease prices.
After 322 past bullish geopolitics events, CORN moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 360 past bullish geopolitics events, WHEAT moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.