
CONAB data show 91% of Mato Grosso's soybean area planted as of October 30, 2026, up from 76% a week earlier. Mato Grosso do Sul reached 68%, Paraná 62%, Goiás 58%, and Rio Grande do Sul 11%.
Heavy rain in the Campo Mourão region of Paraná (87 mm from October 27 to November 2) is seen possibly delaying planting in waterlogged fields.
Faster planting in central Brazil supports expectations of a timely 2026/27 soybean harvest, which tends to ease export competition pressure on soybean meal. Excess rain in Paraná could delay sowing and slightly raise yield risk, a mild supportive factor for soybean prices.
After 324 past neutral weather events, SOY moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 55 past neutral weather events, SBM moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.5%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.