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Oil benchmarks closed lower on Tuesday, with Brent settling at $103.60 a barrel, its lowest close since October 7, and WTI at $96.09. Traders weighed mediation efforts to end the US-Iran and Ukraine conflicts against continued risks from recent attacks that could disrupt supplies.
Easing war risk and peace-talk progress reduce the supply risk premium in crude, which lowers diesel and energy input costs for feed producers and freight. ING notes that clear peace progress would mean further downside for prices.
live.euronext.comNov 3, 2026
businesstimes.com.sgNov 3, 2026After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, WTI moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, BRENT moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 51 past bearish geopolitics events, DIESEL moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -8.2% to +3.9%), and -2.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
