Oil prices eased about 1% to a nearly four-week low on Tuesday as Qatar-mediated talks continued between the US and Iran, which remain far apart on a deal. Brent was heading for its lowest close since October 7 and WTI for its lowest since October 14.
Lower crude reduces the energy and fertilizer cost pressure on feed margins, but ING notes that escalation risk has not passed, so prices could rebound.
After 242 past bearish geopolitics events, WTI moved a median -2.7% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -7.5% to +1.8%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 239 past bearish geopolitics events, BRENT moved a median -2.9% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -8.4% to +1.9%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 50 past bearish geopolitics events, DIESEL moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -8.4% to +4.0%), and -2.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.