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February Nymex gas futures fell 9.5 cents to $3.523/mmBtu, down 11.6% since the January contract expired. Forecasts turned materially warmer, with temperatures expected to average about 50°F and no major cold shots through January 19.
Analysts estimated the revision could remove about 35 Bcf of demand from a 15-day outlook.
Warmer forecasts cut projected heating demand and reduce the risk of freeze-offs, which lowers near-term gas price expectations.
energyintel.comAuthor Everett Wheeler, Washington Editor Michael SultanJan 5, 2026After 104 past bearish weather events, Natural Gas moved a median -7.8% over 5 sessions (22% higher; middle half -14.8% to -0.8%), and -3.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Forecasts turned materially warmer with no major cold through Jan 19, removing about 35 Bcf of demand and leaving Feb Nymex down 11.6% since the January contract expired.
