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February natural gas futures fell 48.7 cents to settle at $3.99 per million Btu on Tuesday as anemic space heating demand weighed on the market. The decline reflected weak winter heating needs during a warm start to the season.
Low heating demand lowers natural gas burn and supports a bearish near-term price outlook. Cheaper gas reduces input costs for nitrogen fertilizer and power used in feed processing.
After 104 past bearish weather events, Natural Gas moved a median -7.8% over 5 sessions (22% higher; middle half -14.8% to -0.8%), and -3.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.