November Nymex natural gas futures fell 4.7% on Friday to close below $3 per million Btu, after trading as low as $2.955. The contract lost 9% over the week on forecasts for mild weather and limited heating demand.
Forecasts of mild weather reduce expected heating load, pushing gas prices lower and easing energy costs for drying and processing feed ingredients.
After 104 past bearish weather events, Natural Gas moved a median -7.8% over 5 sessions (22% higher; middle half -14.8% to -0.8%), and -3.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Reports the Oct 21 drop of about 4.7% to below $3/MMBtu on mild-weather forecasts curbing heating demand, directly matching the date and direction of the move.