Oil prices reversed early gains on Tuesday as traders weighed renewed US-Iran diplomacy against fresh threats to Russian energy infrastructure. Brent briefly rose to about $105.66 before retreating toward $103, and WTI slipped into the mid-$95 range, following Monday's sharp sell-off in which Brent fell 7.6% and WTI fell 7.4%.
Crude swings pass through to diesel and freight costs for feed ingredient supply chains. Diplomatic progress would ease energy-driven costs, while renewed Russian refinery damage could tighten diesel and support prices.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, WTI moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, BRENT moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, DIESEL moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.