
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange raised its estimate for Argentine wheat production from 21 to 23.8 million tonnes. Harvest reached 6.7% of the planted area with an average yield of 21.3 quintals per hectare.
Northern Hemisphere harvest and the start of the Australian crop continue to weigh on prices, while Russia-Ukraine diplomacy could ease Black Sea shipping.
Larger Argentine supply and Southern Hemisphere availability add to global wheat stocks, keeping prices under pressure. Any easing of Black Sea shipping risk would add further supply and weigh on wheat prices.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, WHEAT moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 138 past bearish report events, KWHEAT moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.9% to +2.4%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.