
Kansas City wheat prices turned lower after failing twice to reach near one-year highs. USDA lowered its estimate of US hard red spring wheat ending stocks but still expects record world wheat production in 2020/21.
Spring wheat planting in North Dakota is lagging.
Record expected world production outweighs the tighter US spring wheat stocks, which weighs on HRW and spring wheat prices. Delayed planting in North Dakota is a possible upside risk.
After 138 past bearish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.9% to +2.4%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.