◂ Event Timeline

Nov 3, 2026WEATHERCentral America

El Niño Is Already Cutting Costa Rica's Coffee Harvest by Up to 15%

Costa Rica's coffee institute Icafé now expects the coffee harvest to be 10% to 15% smaller than first estimated due to irregular El Niño rains and heat. The Central Bank cut its 2026 and 2027 farm-sector outlook, citing lower coffee, onion and sugarcane output and higher fertilizer prices.

WHY IT MATTERS

Feed buyers see limited direct effect since coffee is not a feed input, but the warning on pasture, water and livestock productivity plus higher fertilizer costs in Central America is a small supply-side signal for regional feed and cattle costs.

AFFECTSCORN SOY WHEAT PALMOIL

SOURCE
ticotimes.netNov 3, 2026

Price reaction & history

CORNno directional readSO FAR1d -1.1%5d —20d —

After 2,467 past weather events, CORN moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.7%), and +0.6% over 20.

Oct 2, 2026Record El Niño Behind Historic Rains Stalling Harvest Across the U.S. - AgWeb-1.6%
Jun 2, 2023El Niño already affects climate in corn producing areas - Revista Cultivar-1.5%
Jun 10, 2021Breakage of the corn harvest is already certain in important producing centers - Revista Cultivar-1.8%
Oct 30, 2017Delay in soybean planting already compromises corn harvest in Goiás - Revista Cultivar-0.3%
May 25, 2023El Nino seen posing larger risk for robusta coffee, less to arabica | Reuters-4.4%

SOYno directional readSO FAR1d -0.3%5d —20d —

After 1,964 past weather events, SOY moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.

Oct 2, 2026Record El Niño Behind Historic Rains Stalling Harvest Across the U.S. - AgWeb+0.3%
Oct 30, 2017Delay in soybean planting already compromises corn harvest in Goiás - Revista Cultivar+0.2%
Apr 18, 2024Goodbye, El Niño. Hello, La Niña? The Big Transition to La Niña is Already Underway - AgWeb+1.4%
May 25, 2023El Nino seen posing larger risk for robusta coffee, less to arabica | Reuters+0.4%
Aug 10, 2026El Niño's Growing Threat: A Slower Harvest at Home, A Bigger Problem in Brazil - AgWeb+1.5%

WHEATno directional readSO FAR1d -0.5%5d —20d —

After 1,773 past weather events, WHEAT moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.2% over 20.

May 25, 2023El Nino seen posing larger risk for robusta coffee, less to arabica | Reuters-1.8%
Apr 18, 2024Goodbye, El Niño. Hello, La Niña? The Big Transition to La Niña is Already Underway - AgWeb+0.5%
May 19, 2017El Niño again? This is why it’s hard to tell. | Climate Change+3.0%
Jan 23, 2024Australia set to harvest bigger crops after rains defy El Nino-0.1%
Apr 29, 2021El Niño can help predict cacao harvests-5.4%

PALMOILno directional readSO FAR1d -2.2%5d —20d —

After 361 past weather events, PALMOIL moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.3%), and -0.2% over 20.

May 25, 2023El Nino seen posing larger risk for robusta coffee, less to arabica | Reuters-8.4%
Apr 29, 2021El Niño can help predict cacao harvests+3.3%
Sep 27, 2018Seasonal Outlook: Haze Update – El Niño Ready Nations-0.8%
Jul 13, 2026Brazil coffee faces El Niño headwinds, but crops more resilient+0.5%
Jul 11, 2017How Africa can prepare against the next El Niño and why - Sub-Saharan Africa-1.2%

Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.

CORN · GP ▸

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SOY · GP ▸

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