
EUR/GBP traded near 0.8336, close to April 2025 lows, as the euro struggled to recover. WTI rebounded above $97 after a nearly 7% drop on Monday, following reports of limited US strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island.
Markets await Eurozone and UK PMIs, preliminary Eurozone inflation and the Bank of England decision on Thursday, which is widely expected to be its first rate hike since 2023.
Sterling support from expected BoE tightening and French fiscal risk weighs on the euro, while oil swings tied to Iran headlines feed energy-driven inflation expectations that affect currency-linked feed import costs.
After 533 past bearish macro events, EURUSD moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.2%), and -0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 102 past neutral macro events, WTI moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -3.3% to +2.5%), and +1.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.