
EUR/USD held modest gains on Monday around 1.1595 as the dollar struggled to extend Friday's rise. The Dollar Index traded near 99.55 after hawkish comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole, and 10-year Treasury yields climbed to about 4.75%.
Markets priced roughly a 61% chance of a Fed rate hike in September.
A firmer dollar and higher US yields tend to weigh on dollar-denominated grain, oilseed and meal prices by making US exports less competitive abroad. A September Fed hike would tighten financial conditions further.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 533 past bearish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.2%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.