
EUR/USD fell below 1.1650 on Thursday, extending a reversal from three-month highs above 1.1700. Hot US PCE inflation data boosted the dollar and raised pressure on the Fed to hike.
German GfK consumer sentiment improved but did little to support the euro.
Stronger US inflation and rate-hike bets lift the dollar, which tends to cap US commodity export prices. The move is a macro backdrop rather than a direct supply change.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 533 past bearish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.2%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.