China's Purchases of US Farm Goods Face Test as Fulfilment Lags

After 250 past neutral trade events, SOY moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and -0.2% over 20.

• Apr 27, 2021US-China phase one tracker: China’s purchases of US goods - WITA-0.6%
• Dec 14, 2019Factbox: A lot of soy, a little rice - China's historical U.S. agricultural purchases+2.3%
• Apr 25, 2021The U.S.-China Phase 1 Trade Agreement— Purchases of goods and services by China continue to lag dramatically behind commitments - WITA+2.0%
• Jul 22, 2026China's US Ag Purchases Slightly Lag, But Year-End Target | NewsFormal-0.6%
• Mar 7, 2019China's Shopping List in America Has These Farm Goods at the Top - Bloomberg-0.1%

After 683 past bearish trade events, CORN moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.

• Aug 6, 2019Chinese Companies Halt U.S. Farm Goods Purchase - Caixin Global-3.1%
• Jun 1, 2026Explainer: What do China's new US farm purchases mean for global trade?-5.5%
• Apr 24, 2023US corn falls after China cancels purchases; drags wheat, soy lower-0.7%
• Jul 19, 2021US revives WTO grain import quota case as China lags behind in commitments to buy American farm goods | South China Morning Post-1.1%
• Jun 1, 2020China asks state firms to halt purchases of U.S. soybeans, pork, sources say+2.0%

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.