
Brazilian farmers still hold about 67 million tonnes of corn for sale, with October corn exports near 4.2 million tonnes and 2026 cumulative exports at 23.9 million tonnes versus 28.3 million a year earlier. US soybean harvest reached 79% by late October, slightly above the five-year average.
Large Brazilian corn stocks and a weaker real improve export competitiveness, adding supply pressure on world corn and soy prices, while US harvest progress supports ample global soybean supply.
After 683 past bearish trade events, CORN moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 803 past bearish trade events, SOY moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 16 past bullish trade events, USDBRL moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.