
Brazil's slow soybean harvest is delaying supplies reaching buyers, but China does not appear concerned. US soybean export sales to China spiked for a week in mid-January but have mostly been below average since.
US sales to China accounted for 47% of bookings for 2024-25, a 17-year low outside trade-war periods.
Chinese buyers avoiding US cargoes despite Brazilian delays leaves US soybean demand weak and supports pressure on prices. Brazil remains the dominant supplier to China.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.