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After the October 25 Brazilian runoff, the dollar jumped from about R$ 5.00 to near R$ 5.50, peaking at R$ 5.60, and Brazilian farmers stepped back from buying fertilizer. Granular urea eased to US$ 470-486 CFR Brazil, MAP stayed stuck around US$ 830-850, and potash held at US$ 360-372 while European gas hit €100/MWh.
A weaker real and high European gas costs keep fertilizer buying thin in Brazil, and tighter nutrient supply from the Gulf and Morocco plus upcoming Indian tenders could lift prices, raising feed input costs.
nobeltrading-insights.beehiiv.comNobel TradingNov 2, 2026After 213 past bearish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.5% to +0.9%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 10 past neutral macro events, Urea moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (40% higher; middle half -0.7% to +2.5%), and -3.9% over 20.
After 45 past macro events, DAP moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.1%), and -0.6% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
