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UK and European gas prices are rising again heading into Q1 2023, raising nitrogen production costs. Urea has softened, partly due to sterling strength, while phosphate and potash prices have eased and forward prices are expected to rise.
Higher gas costs support nitrogen prices into 2023, while expected firmer phosphate and potash prices would raise fertilizer costs for feed producers.
bartholomews.co.ukDec 8, 2022After 10 past neutral macro events, Urea moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (40% higher; middle half -0.7% to +2.5%), and -3.9% over 20.
After 28 past bullish macro events, DAP moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.3%), and -0.8% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
