Oil Rises as Peace Prospects Dim after US Hits Iran's Qeshm Island

After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, WTI moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.

• May 9, 2018Oil jumps to highest since 2014 after US quits Iran deal+3.5%
• May 21, 2026US oil prices rise as investors doubt breakthrough in US-Iran peace talks | Reuters-9.1%
• Jul 29, 2026Oil rises as US-Iran tension escalates after Iraq strikes, missile attack-4.4%
• Aug 31, 2026Brent nears $90 after US-Iran strikes: Why is crude oil price rising?+9.6%
• Mar 20, 2025Oil prices settle $1 higher after US issues new Iran-related sanctions+3.9%

After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, BRENT moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

• May 9, 2018Oil jumps to highest since 2014 after US quits Iran deal+5.6%
• May 21, 2026US oil prices rise as investors doubt breakthrough in US-Iran peace talks | Reuters-11.6%
• Jul 29, 2026Oil rises as US-Iran tension escalates after Iraq strikes, missile attack-2.3%
• Aug 31, 2026Brent nears $90 after US-Iran strikes: Why is crude oil price rising?+10.8%
• Mar 20, 2025Oil prices settle $1 higher after US issues new Iran-related sanctions+4.0%

After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, DIESEL moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Jun 16, 2025European oil products rise further amid fresh Israel-Iran strikes-1.2%
• Mar 1, 2026Oil prices are rising sharply after US and Israeli attacks | AP News+36.4%
• Jan 10, 2025Oil prices rally 3% as US hits Russian oil with tougher sanctions+10.5%
• Sep 25, 2023MYR ENDS HIGHER vs USD AS OIL PRICE RISES   – Alpha Southeast Asia+1.1%
• Apr 1, 2026Fertilizer Prices Have ‘Significant’ Rise After Attack on Iran-7.8%