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Chicago wheat fell about 0.2% to $6.05-1/4 a bushel as markets priced in possible Russia-Ukraine peace talks. The US will host delegations from both countries in Abu Dhabi on November 10-11.
Soybeans rebounded 0.18% to $12.19 a bushel, with the US soybean harvest 88% complete and output forecast to be a record.
A possible end to hostilities could release pent-up Russian and Ukrainian grain exports, adding pressure to an already bearish wheat market. Record US soybean output also weighs on bean prices.
brecorder.comReutersNov 3, 2026After 80 past bearish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 16 past bearish geopolitics events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -3.0% over 5 sessions (13% higher; middle half -4.3% to -1.9%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 20 past neutral geopolitics events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.5%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
