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An agricultural economist, Wesley Davis of Meridian Agribusiness Advisors, projects 2026 US net cash farm income at $176.4 billion, the second-highest on record. Market income has fallen roughly 34% from its 2022 peak, and $47.4 billion of the total comes from federal payments.
Cotton, rice and some specialty crops face weaker export demand, while Brazilian farmers contend with credit constraints and high interest rates.
Growing reliance on government payments rather than market income signals weaker underlying farm demand for feed and inputs heading into 2027. Falling export opportunities for some US crops could add pressure to domestic prices for those commodities.
agnavigator.comRyan DailyNov 2, 2026After 541 past macro events, Corn moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.4%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 456 past macro events, Soybeans moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.1% to +1.6%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 152 past macro events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.1%), and -0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
