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Grain futures fell on Sept. 20, 2021, as a broad risk-off selloff hit commodity and equity markets over concerns about a Chinese property developer.
December corn dropped 5.5 cents to $5.2175 and November soybeans fell 21.5 cents to $12.625, with soymeal and soyoil also lower. USDA reported that 10% of the US corn crop was harvested.
Risk-off selling and rising harvest hedge pressure weigh on feed grain and oilseed prices. Hurricane Ida damage to Gulf export terminals limits the near-term export demand that could offset this.
profarmer.comPro Farmer EditorsSep 20, 2021profarmer.comPro Farmer EditorsSep 20, 2021After 69 past bearish macro events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.5% over 5 sessions (35% higher; middle half -2.6% to +0.8%), and -0.7% over 20.
After 273 past bearish macro events, Soybeans moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 301 past bearish macro events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 117 past bearish macro events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
A broad risk-off selloff on Sept. 20 over Chinese property developer concerns hit commodity markets including grains, which plausibly explains the outsized one-day drop in wheat via sentiment and fund liquidation.
Sept. 20 broad risk-off selloff across commodities and equities (Chinese developer concerns) hit grain futures and Dec corn fell, though the quoted 5.5-cent drop is far smaller than a 5.5% move, so the sentiment mechanism explains direction but not full magnitude.
