
Pro Farmer reported nearby soybean futures near a two-week low, with corn and wheat also lower on recession concerns. Malaysian palm oil fell over 3 percent to a 2.5-month low.
USDA confirmed cancellation of 100,000 tonnes of soybean sales to unknown destinations, and the Federal Reserve was expected to announce a 75 basis-point rate hike. Extreme Midwest heat was forecast to continue.
A likely large Fed rate hike and recession worries strengthen the dollar and weigh on commodity demand, while Midwest heat adds weather risk to corn and soybean crops, leaving price direction mixed.
After 273 past bearish macro events, Soybeans moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 301 past bearish macro events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 69 past bearish macro events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.5% over 5 sessions (35% higher; middle half -2.6% to +0.8%), and -0.7% over 20.
After 51 past bearish macro events, Palm Oil moved a median -1.3% over 5 sessions (35% higher; middle half -4.1% to +1.1%), and -1.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.