
An exceptionally strong El Niño is affecting regions worldwide, with a cyclone striking India's southeastern coast and forcing nearly 100,000 evacuations. Drought is affecting tens of thousands of families in Bolivia, which has declared a state of emergency, and the World Bank expects food prices to rise 18% next year.
Drought in South America and storm damage in South Asia threaten rice and coffee supplies and add to upward pressure on feed grain and oilseed prices. Buyers should expect firmer global food costs into next year.
After 179 past bullish weather events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.5%), and +2.2% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.